I ran across this article in Inc 500 and thought I’d repost. http://www.inc.com/inc5000/201108/a-few-thousand-reasons-to-be-optimistic.html It seems there are several reasons to be quite optimistic these days. What are some things you’re seeing that cause you to be optimistic moving into the fall?
For the last few months I continue to hear from our buyer clients “There just aren’t that many properties to see!”
This morning I pulled the July stats for Washington DC single family houses (found here http://gcaar.com/uploadedFiles/PDF/ToolKit/Research/Home_Sales_Statistics/DC_Single_Family/dcsf0711[1](1).pdf)
and the numbers tell a clear story. Inventory is down a whopping 20% from this time last year. Sales activity is essentially the same so this is translating into extremely competitive bidding for the few properties that are good buys in the market place today. Condo inventory is down 10% so we’re feeling the pinch there as well, though not as much as in the $500-$1 million price point for houses in the city.
If you’re thinking of selling, and have enough equity to do so, it is time to list – now more than ever before. If you’re buying, be prepared to act quickly and aggressively. The best homes are selling within about a week and in some cases for more than list.
If you’d like to talk about your specific situation, call me and I can guide you through a step by step plan to help you move forward.
America, wake up, it is time to stop moping around like a wounded puppy. It is time to focus on how good things really are. Sometimes the best way to gain perspective on just how good we have it, is to travel to a place where that is not the case. For anyone complaining about the hard economic times, I encourage them to book a ticket to Addis Ababa, the capital of Ethiopia, and take a long, hot, bus ride to the famine and war stricken boards of Somalia where tens of thousands of people are dying of starvation.
And we’re worried about a nick on our credit?
Our culture, form of government, and history – though messy at times – has created an environment where anyone can feel empowered and succeed at the highest levels possible.
Since this is a real estate blog I feel it necessary to point out real estate examples of extraordinary success, despite the prevailing economic winds. We recently sold 1300 Fairmont for $1.4 million, $400,000 more than any other residential property in Columbia Heights. Keller Williams Capital Properties (with whom I’m affiliated) has been profitable every month since it opened in 2005 and is growing rapidly every month with nearly three hundred agents – all in a “down” market. I know a number of agents who are having their best year ever. Many properties are selling with multiple offers. Interest rates are at around 4%! It is again possible to purchase an investment property and rent it out and cash flow. Commercial development is booming throughout several economic sectors in the city. 90% of the country is employed.
Let’s choose to see opportunities instead of obstacles. Change the way you look at things and the things you look at change.
Spring sales numbers were up in many categories across the DC metro area though the combination of 120 degree heat indices, and all the hot air steaming from the Capitol Dome has resulted in a summer slowdown which I believe will be reflected in the July and August numbers. Our market tends to slow down this time every year though this year might be different.
As I write this article the weekend before the August 2nd deadline there still is no agreement in Congress about the debt ceiling, and this week GDP numbers were revised downward for 1st qt 2011 and were miserably low in 2nd qt 2011. I believe this all spells some seriously good buy opportunities this fall! According to the analysts who run numbers on these things, a .5% interest rate hike in the next couple weeks is likely as our credit rating takes a hit – which seems likely even if the debt ceiling is lifted. If we do indeed default, an interest rate hike of 1% or more is probable.
Luckily interest rates are already very low so going from 4.5% to 5.5% isn’t likely to have a long term negative effective on the market. 5.5% is still a fantastic rate though we have been lulled into a sense of normalcy with rates in the 4% range which will cause 5.5% to seem painfully high for a little while.
I predict this fall will be somewhat challenging in the real estate markets across the country as at a minimum our confidence in the trajectory our economy (and our country) has taken a hit.
We will continue to bounce back however as fundamentals that drive real estate markets such as supply and demand and affordability are well in alignment (and in some cases downright crazy good) with “normal” trend lines.
If you’re a buyer, you may have a chance to make a purchase in a market that is advantageous to you (depending on what/where you’re looking). Fall 2010 was a much better time to buy than spring 2011 and I suspect fall 2011 will be a much better time to buy than spring 2012 and beyond.
The ebb and flow of the real estate market is fascinating to me and calls into question “timing the market”. What is it about spring that causes people to move into a decision now that they couldn’t make in February? Who knows, but what I do know is now is a very good time to sell if you have the equity to price right. Inventory across several market categories is lower than it has been in a long time and buyers are scraping for good deals. Quick tips - Sellers: be aggressive (low) with your price – you’ll probably get more than one offer and with good terms. The market will bid it up if it is too low. Buyers: move fast. The best deals are done in 2 days – are you prepared to move with lightening speed? If not, it will be hard to lock up the best deals available.
With 100+ degree heat baking the real estate market this month, and snow measured in feet only a few short months ago, I am frequently asked – does the weather impact the real estate market? The short answer is yes. The engine that drives the real estate market are buyers who physically are touring homes – many of which are only moderately motivated in today’s environment. Therefore, weather conditions can definitely cause buyer traffic to change and therefore the sale can be pushed down the road. My advice to my seller clients is to focus on what you can control – which is property condition, and price. The weather will change eventually and the buyers will be back out looking at property so “chill” and you’ll see a change soon. If you’re not sure about your particular situation, contact me and we’ll go through the particulars. brandon@brandongreen.com or 202-318-1623.
The volume of real estate transactions is down about 17% from this time last year (depending on which segment of our local market you look at) but inventory numbers are up only slightly. More foreclosures are selling quickly which is chewing through or excess inventory at a respectable pace. The recent drop in interest rates has helped spike activity and everyone is cautiously optimistic that an administration change will mean nothing but good things for the real estate market.
Bottom line - nearly everything in the US is on sale right now, including some great deals in real estate. We don’t know when the sale will end, but like all great sales - they don’t last forever! Keep affordability in the forefront of your mind and make decisions that are right for your life right now - and don’t worry about the market. If it makes sense for you to buy right now - based on where you are with your life - buy. If you want to sell because it will help you move on to something else you want in your life - sell.
We are helping about six people every month sell and buy real estate. Let us know what we can do for you.
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